El Nino and Pop Up Storms for 2009-2010

 

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Weather problems are nothing new. However a pattern of extreme weather is something to watch. Will this season be normal or extreme?

Hopefully, we will have normal weather this next season, and not extreme weather.

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Bible application

The extreme weather patterns are linked to changes in the end times, called the beginning of sorrows.

Among other signs, earthquakes and fearful sights from heaven would be one sign of the end times.

Luk 21:11 And great earthquakes shall be in divers places, and famines, and pestilences; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven.

The earth will, or is, apparently going through changes. Are what we seeing extreme enough to qualify for what Jesus described?

Jesus mentioned earthquakes, but we seem to have always had them. So they will be still happening.

Pestilences may be due to several factors, and one of these may be that nature is out of balance, due to the environment (global warming, pollution, changes in weather patterns, and soil or water conditions).

The expression that “fearful sights and signs from heaven” may not be just due to UFOs, missiles, or zodiac arrangements, although they might be important.

Another sign may be more category 5 hurricanes (typhoons) coming in our direction. I would consider this a fearful sight to behold, especially if I was living in its path:

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El nino

I have collected some information about El Nino, and how it could influence weather, and famine (due to conditions being either too wet, or dry).

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(1) http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/07/09/el-nino-hurricanes.html

In general, El Nino conditions are associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific and with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

A summer El Nino can lead to wetter than normal conditions in the intermountain regions of the United States and over central Chile. In an El Nino year there tend to be more Eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

NOAA officials noted that not all El Nino effects are negative. For example, it can suppress Atlantic hurricanes and bring needed moisture to the arid Southwest .

But it can also steer damaging winter storms to California and increase storminess across the southern United States.

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(2) http://www.knmi.nl/research/global_climate/enso/effects/

El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The effects depend strongly on the location and the season.

The strongest effects on precipitation are in South-East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean, especially in the dry season (August-November).

There are temperature effects throughout most of the tropics.

The number of tropical cyclones also depends on El Niño in most basins. In boreal winter the effects are most wide-spread: from southern Africa to eastern Russia and most of the Americas.

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Precipitation

Blue circles indicate that during El Niño there was, on average, more rain than normal, red circles indicate drought during El Niño.

La Niña (pattern of cold air) has the opposite effect in almost all locations.

The size of the circles is a measure of the strength of the relationship.

Presented here are the extreme seasons:

September-November (map below) This season the effects of El Niño are strongest. Almost all of Indonesia, the Philippines and eastern Australia are drier than usual during most El Niño events. Large parts of India are often drier than usual, but the Sri Lanka and some southern states get more rain. East Africa, parts of Central Asia and Spain are also on average wetter than normal during El Niño in this season, as are Chili and Uruguay.

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December-February (map below) In boreal winter the Philippines and East Indonesia stay drier, whereas the Pacific islands along the equator remain wetter. Florida also gets more rain than normal during El Niño, this effect extends to other southern states of the U.S. and into Mexico. South Africa is more frequently dry, as is the northern coast of South America and some of the leeward Antilles. In Uruguay en South Brasil rainfall increases on average. Along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru rainfall increases when the coastal waters heat up, an effect also named El Niño but not always coincident with the warming along the equator that affects the rest of the world.

 

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Tropical Cyclones

During El Niño there are on average fewer hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. La Niña often brings more.

The west coast of Mexico and the United States see more landfalling hurricanes during El Niño.

In the central Pacific Ocean El Niño brings more typhoons, both north and south of the equator. The more easterly genesis makes that fewer of these tropical cyclones reach Australia.

In the northern Pacific Ocean the area with typhoons also shifts east. There are no effects on the number of cyclones over the Indian Ocean.

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Pop Up Storms

Although El Nino may not be a source of hurricanes in some areas, will pop up storms bring them anyhow?

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News and Weather stories

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(1) US Gulf may see pop-up storms – Accuweather

http://www.reuters.com/article/americasCrisis/idUSN14513522

The Gulf of Mexico may see intense, rapidly developing hurricanes during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season that appear to pop up without warning

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(2) Pop-Up Storms Change Our Timeframe

http://blog.pertinentperils.com/?tag=pop-up-storms

Typically during the Atlantic storm season, hurricanes would form off of the coast of Africa and travel westward towards the United States, providing ample notice of impending landfall.

But meteorologists are noting a new trend, possibly beginning with Hurricane Umberto in 2007, in which storms “pop up” off the coast of the United States and make landfall very rapidly. This means that residents of affected areas have less notice to prepare evacuations.

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(3) Are Pop-up Storms on the Rise?

http://www.safetyissues.com/site/natural_disasters/609.html

Safety tips given here, and preparation.

The presence of warm water in the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean — where waters heat up faster than waters off Africa — could be a key factor in the formation of these pop-up storms.

Once conditions are favorable, the pop-up storms can quickly reach category 4 or 5 status.

They are likely to contribute to excessive rain and flash floods. Judging from storm behavior in recent times, most deaths from tropical storms have been caused by storm-related floods, according to the National Hurricane Center based in Miami.

And because there is less time to warn people about them, more people might be at risk.

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Thoughts:

Will El Nino cancel out, or make less likely, any pop up storms for the 2009-2010 season?

I personally do not know.

But, it appears to be an odd set of patterns to coincide with each other.

The best thing to do is be informed, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. God bless you.