God, Man and Stock Market Wave Theories

stock-market-roller-coaster

Presented here are several wave investment theories, which reflect not just general stock market trends, but man’s reactions to social and cultural events, which impact his psyche and decision making. Since man is flesh, and his emotions are volatile, guess what happens next? How does this compare to what it would look like if God made the decisions?

The purpose here is 3 fold:

1. Help people understand the cycles of man’s investment thinking and the results of his thinking (Do not get bound up in this!)

2. Show where we are now, and how long it might last (more important!)

3. Compare this to God’s ways

This post is longer than usual. You do not need to focus on the financial part that closely, since what you really want to know is (1) where we are now, and (2) what to expect next. The extra details are for those who like details.-


References:

http://www.futures-investor.co.uk/market_cycles_and_fibonacci.htm

http://www.futures-investor.co.uk/elliott_wave_intro_1.htm

http://www.futures-investor.co.uk/technical_analysis_chart_patterns.htm

http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8163.html


The Basic Elliott Wave Formation

Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market charts move in a series of recognizable patterns back in the 1950’s, publishing his findings in his book, The Wave Principle. Elliott believed that the patterns reflected mass market psychology, (made up of hundreds of thousands of collective investors’ opinions) and was a barometer of man’s valuation of productive capability.

He described 13 patterns, or waves, that recur and are repetitive, whereby the structures link together to form larger versions of the same patterns.

As the patterns repeat, the waves label what situation a market is in.

The basic Elliott Wave formation is made up of 5 sub-waves that propel the market in a trending direction – called a Motive Wave.

Every one of the 5 sub-waves serves one of two functions: action or reaction.

Actionary Wave: Promotes the cause of the wave of a larger degree.

Reactionary Wave: Interrupts the progress of the wave of one larger degree.

The 5-pulse, motive wave is labeled with numbers (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5), with the actionary waves being labeled with odd numbers, 1, 3 and 5; and the reactionary waves being labeled with even numbers 2 and 4.

elliott-up

Figure1 : Basic 5-wave structure that propels the market in the direction of the trend. Sub-waves 1, 3 and 5 are actionary waves. Sub-waves 2 and 4 are reactionary waves.

These 5 sub-waves complete ONE wave of a larger degree.

This 5-wave structure completes the movement that advances the trend. We can label the whole Motive Wave pattern above as Wave (1) of a larger degree.

It is then followed by a Corrective Wave, which most often takes the form of 3 sub-waves. It is labeled with letters a, b and c. This 3-wave pattern, we can label as Wave (2) of a larger degree.

elliott-down

Figure 2: After a 5-wave move in the direction of the main trend – Wave (1) of a larger degree – the wave is corrected by what is usually a 3 wave pattern, which is labeled with letters: a, b, and c. This 3-wave correction forms a complete formation that we can label Wave (2) of a larger degree. Therefore, the diagram above now shows 8 sub-waves that form Wave (1) and Wave (2) of a larger degree.

This complete 8 sub-wave pattern is what typically makes up the Elliott Wave structure. It is important to realize that the pattern can be ascending (a bull market) or descending (a bear market). If the main trend is up – then we will see 5 waves moving up, followed by 3 waves moving down. If the main trend is down, we will see 5 waves moving down, followed by 3 waves moving up – correcting the main trend.

Gann and Elliott Wave Count Similarities

Elliott used numbers and letters to count and label the trends and reactions of a market (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B, C, etc.

Elliott and Gann, noticed the exact same patterns on price charts:

Where Elliott labeled the waves of a trending market as having five waves, Gann described the same, noticeable patterns by calling each section a Campaign.


Gann Bull Market Campaign

gann-11

Figure 3: Gann’s Bull Market Campaign.

1st Section: A new bull market begins with an advance from a final bottom followed by a reaction. (In Elliot terms, these are Waves 1 and 2.)

2nd Section: An advance to higher levels, followed by a reaction. (In Elliott terms, Waves 3 and 4.)

3rd Section: An advance to a new high. In many cases, Gann said that this would end the campaign. (In Elliott terms, Wave 5.)

An alternative, “bullish” shape recognized by Gann is the same as an Elliott correction against a bear trend: a Zigzag correction where Wave A is counted as one wave and Wave C is counted as a five.

(In large corrective Zigzags, the first wave – Wave A – is often fast moving and the sub-waves are lost or hard to count. But Wave Cs regularly show a visible 5-count.) Gann described the “bullish” shape making a Fourth Section:

gann2

Figure 4:

4th Section: Gann said that if the market makes a fourth run to new highs, it is an important section to watch for a change in trend at the fourth high. (In Elliott terms, this could be Wave A, followed by a 5-wave, Wave C.) This ends a typical Elliott Zigzag, which would lead to a strong decline to new lows. (Alternatively, Gann could have been talking about an extended wave, such as a third. E.g. in the diagram above, Waves A and B could be Waves 1 and 2. The 1,2,3,4,5 count could be an extended third wave. After this, Wave 4 would fall and Wave 5 may not get much higher than the end of Wave 3. This can happen quite often.)

Gann also said that campaigns of short duration would often run out in 2 sections, especially if the move was from a sharp bottom. In Elliott terms, this would be a typical 3-wave Zigzag correction of a SMALL DEGREE, where the sub-waves would be lost or hard to count (without zooming in on a smaller time frame price chart).

Kondratieff wave – Current Economic Cycles

These are approximately 54 year cycles. With four distinct phases in the K-wave a number of analysts have compared them to the seasons. Spring (inflationary growth, expansion), summer (stagflation, recession), autumn (deflationary growth, plateau) and winter (depression).

The chart below summarizes the generally accepted phases since 1784 in the United States. We have noted the significant wars that accompanied the recession (price peak) and depression (trough) phase. We have also noted the tag name for the Autumn periods that were characterized by massive debt growth and speculative bubbles.

kondratieff-chapmanchart

Many have argued as to whether the Kondratieff wave is valid for the post WW2 economy given the fiscal and monetary tools of a modern economy. Others have argued that trough of the K-wave has already passed. Their count is from the stock market trough of the Great Depression in 1932. Add the average 54-year K-wave period and we are in the spring expansion of the new K-wave.

But what the Kondratieff wave is about is a study of long cycles of debt buildup and repudiation. It is not exclusively about price inflation and deflation periods.

Deflation is caused in part by the debt collapse. It is also a generational thing as the next cycle of debt buildup and collapse is renewed every 2-3 generations as the previous generation that went through comparable periods dies off.

The old adage that “this time it is different” means the circumstances are different, yes, but they fail to recognize that the previous period was the same in terms of excesses and therefore the end result is the same

We have entered the downside of the current K-wave. This wave could last anywhere from nine to twenty years as we saw in earlier winter K-waves. The K-wave is the rise and fall of a generation and covers both the social and economic life of the period. The ancient Mayans knew of the inevitability of the cycle and took steps to mitigate its effects (although ironically in the end it did not save them).

The Winter of the K-wave is a dangerous period. But it will be eased for those holding gold or gold stocks. The winter of the K-wave is upon us. See Cliff Droke’s theory on a 2008 to 2014 “hard winter”.

kondratieff-wave

Figure 5

So where are we now?

Elliott wave:

elliott-down-you-are-here

Figure 6


Kondratieff wave:

Winter wave is about 18-20 years long.

kondratieff-you-are-here

Figure 7

headache-bulldog

Have a headache yet? What would God’s pattern be, if we were obedient to him?

Answer: the trend would look like this:

no-prosperity-curve-with-god

God offers consistency, not a crazy, scary pattern.

The amazing comment is above, that deflation is a collapse, due to the generational buildup of debt passed from one generation to another. That is very biblical.

Deuteronomy 28 describes the blessings for obedience to God’s Word, and the curses for disobedience.

Obedience:

Deu 28:8 The LORD shall command the blessing upon you in thy storehouses, and in all that you set your hand unto; and he shall bless you in the land which the LORD thy God gives you.

Deu 28:12 The LORD shall open unto thee his good treasure, the heaven to give the rain unto your land in his season, and to bless all the work of your hand: and you shall lend unto many nations, and thou shall not borrow.

So far, those who obey God will have plenty, and not have to borrow money! No credit cards necessary. No Debt!

For disobedience:

Deu 28:20 The LORD shall send upon thee cursing, vexation, and rebuke, in all that you set your hand unto for to do, until you be destroyed, and until you perish quickly; because of the wickedness of your doings, whereby you have forsaken me.

Man is inherently greedy and selfish. If left to himself long enough, he will ruin what he does.

This particular generation is really arrogant, and immoral. It is a bunch of rebellious, wacked out hippies, trying to run the world, on what brains they have left after a lifetime of self indulgence, pot and LSD. We have passed laws not only making sin legal, but we have given it a place of honor.

Because we want to get rich quick, have things easy, we have used selfish schemes to get there, instead of honest work. So now we suffer, and our children suffer. We have cursed ourselves.

The Bible mentions “generational curses” in several places (Exodus 20:5; 34:7; Numbers 14:18; Deuteronomy 5:9).

It sounds unfair for God to punish children for the sins of their fathers. However, this is looking at it from an earthly perspective. God knows that the effects of sin are passed down from one generation to the next. When a father has a sinful lifestyle, his children are likely to have the same sinful lifestyle as well.

That is why it is not unjust for God to punish sin to the third or fourth generation – because they are committing the same sins their ancestors did.

But they are being punished for their own sins, not the sins of their ancestors. The Bible specifically tells us that God does not hold children accountable for the sins of their parents (Deuteronomy 24:16).

So…. We are in a downturn, which might last another 10 years. We are in a “winter” 20 year cycle. The economy is terrible, and people are suffering.

What do we do?

Secular behaviors:

1. Do not put faith in the stock market. It is run by men who lie and cheat, not God.

2. If you have investments, go very conservative, with most in cash. Change the portfolio model you have. Short funds at the best.

3. Expect things to get worse. If you see positive changes, expect them to be very temporary. Do not overreact, and reinvest the cash, because in a few months, you will lose it.

4. try not to incur more debt. Pay off what you have if you can.

5. Downsize. If you cannot afford your house, get a smaller one. Same with cars, and other expensive items. If what you have is paid for, you will need less money to live on.

6. Use wisdom in spending. (Think to yourself: Do you REALLY need THAT?) Buy good, used items instead of buying new things, if possible.

Spiritual:

1. stop being greedy, and believing every prosperity message that comes along. Be smart, not stupid.

2. repent of your sins. Do not do them anymore.!!!! Obey God!

3. give to the poor. God helps those who help the poor.

4. help, and pray for the peace of Israel. God blesses those who bless Israel.

5. be satisfied with a little, if that covers your basic needs.

6. give thanks to God for your daily bread. Thank God every day, even if you are poor. Ask God to help you see things He has given you, and ask Him to give you a grateful heart. If you are not living in a cardboard box yet, you have something to be grateful for.

7. Do not despair. Do not jump out of a window if you lose money. God will provide for you in small ways. Just ask God for provision, and keep your eyes open for his response.

8. share your blessings with wisdom and compassion. Do not give to those who would exploit you. Give to those with legitimate needs. Somehow, it will come back to you.

9. Pray and trust God for protection. Spend time with God. It does not have to be anything fancy. Ask for forgiveness of sins, and accept the salvation of Jesus, if you haven’t already. Plead the blood of Jesus over your home, finances, children, health, property, and health.

See also:

Only God can fix the stock market Click here for more


The Bible and the Stock Market Click here for more


Solar Cycle 24 and the economy Click here for more


End time transfer of wealth Click here for more


Sunspot activity, economic stress and terrorism Click here for more




30 Responses to “God, Man and Stock Market Wave Theories”

  1. […] here for […]

  2. I will dispute the predictive waves shown above for mainly 2 reasons: People are not herd, they don’t move from one trend to the next ever so mindlessly. On the macro-level, it looks like it. But in the nuanced micro, there are trends within counter trends.

    Such was the reason why Economists, with all of the data and charts going by prior to the 1929 and 30s, could not predict or credibly foreseen. It has nothing to do with grief. It has to do with the human’s inability compute with vast, seemingly infinite factors.

    Second is the set of precedents of interventions, from the Social Security to Savings and Loans. Such interventions proved that government could halt and reverse the slide. But they go nowhere in saying that the same solution could work in the current or coming slides.

    * * *

    As for the religious/spiritual indicators, it is tempting to think that God’s reward is a constant. I have always operated under the assumptions that reward is not what we seek and all expectation are naught because “the Lord works in mysterious ways.”

  3. Hi Vaughn

    True, this graphs are over simplified. There was a better one, but I could not access it to put it in. The point here was that when man is in charge, his prosperity and future is a bit unknown. From those that counsel me, not even they know what will happen next, and things they did in the recent past could not undo some of the results that occurred.

    God is constant, for someone with perfect or strong faith. The graph presented is idealistic. But most people are not like that. They will turn their eyes off God to seek a reward in the material world, as if they can do better themselves, without Him. The bible says that God is a rewarder of those who diligently seek Him. The key word is “diligently.”

    This does not mean that God piles on the money at a constant rate, so that we become rich. But God is constantly faithful, and blesses us in different ways, and it is not always money. But one way or the other, we will have what we need if we just trust Him. I hope that makes more sense.

    Maybe I should add this clarification to the text. Thank you.

    blessings
    marianne

  4. I take great issue with the idea that if you leave Man to his own device, he will ruin himself. First, this implies that his tendencies are inherently destructive. Therefore, two, he has to operate under constant adult supervision.

    Man’s flaw is his constant needs to satisfy immediate needs, and that need is much greater than long-term needs. Those buying into the Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi-scheme was sold on the idea of a constant 20-percent return on investment. But ask yourself, why one of the Jewish universities, with no lack of devotion to the Lord, lost so badly? Is it because they believed too much into of their own, and that no Jew should inflict pain on fellow Jew?

    No. It’s because they are short-sighted, overlooking the great clarion call known as “conflict of interest.”

    As a student of history and record, I have great faith in the humanity of Man, for he is both constructive and destructive. Madoff might have wiped out thousands of retirement accounts, but the act itself wakes up many to re-look into their own investments, prompting even more “Mini-Madoffs.”

    In short: We had our ups and we will face our downs. We have survived and we will survive. Thus, thou shall not fear.

  5. hi vaughn

    Think for a moment of all the great ancient empires that fell, and even in modern times, modern empires that are no longer empires, but suffering many difficulties. Where is their success? How would you explain that?

    marianne

  6. If you think the falling of great empires as the end of the world, Italy, home of the Roman, still stand. Japan still stand and experience great Renaissance in the 80s. China, fell so many times, is now just as strong.

    Even when Rome stood at its peak, it still suffered great difficulties. Leaders then had to deal with regional politics—the by-product of their expansion. Saudi Arabia was once the center of the Middle East, suffered greatly, only to see its fortune reversed. It is now, as it is once was, the center of Islam.

    What you might elude to, is America. Certainly the anxiety is there. 200+ years later, we are in the 2nd shamble within a 100 years. But if Madison and Adams are alive, they would be thrice as shocked: This damn country still existed? Democracy is alive, greater than de Tocqueville have half-expected. Yes, our prisons are overflowed as Alexis have worried, but we just elected the first black man. There, I think he would stand in awe.

    It is not in the interest of America to stand without equal. We stood without equal and look how far that got us? The 90s became the second excess. In 2001, we thought we paid the price for that excess, but that was the price we paid for our carelessness in another decade, namely the 70s snd 80s. What we are paying for, right now, is the installment plan of the 1990s. Dot com bubble was just the beginning. And this won’t be the last. But I don’t think for a moment, civilization will collapse and barbarism will return.

    No. The problems will be on a scale we are not heard of, but that is because we are not used to dealing with such grand scale problems as our fathers and grandfathers of the Greatest Generation.

  7. HI vaughn

    yes, people still live in rome, but it is not the same government. That was my point. the empire is gone, replaced by a different group.

    what do you think of this video?
    http://www.foxnews.com/video2/video08.html?maven_referralObject=3479955&maven_referralPlaylistId=&sRevUrl=http://www.foxnews.com/

    blessings
    marianne

  8. I won’t pretend to know what you mean by “a different group.” Rome, by the way, just dodged the mortgage issue, so it could be on the track of returning to a global power.

    Let’s clear up somethings so we can proceed. By not disputing my previous points, from Saudi Arabia to Japan, to China, I assumed you agreed to the point that civilizations collapsed and reborn in dif. shapes do not mean the end of the world. France still is the center of culture in Western society when it comes to art and couture. Japan is the new contender for that position (source: CS Monitor) with manga and animation.

    U.S.’s dollar is a mess until you start looking at the alternatives, which brings us to the clown that is Glenn Beck.

    The disbandment of gold standard has in turn, made the U.S. dollar the next gold. In 2004-5, Argentina prided itself tagging its currency to a 1:1 ratio with the U.S. dollar, hoping it would spur economic interest. It did not.

    Beijing’s fiscal budget is pegged on the dollar and not gold. This is why they refused to let the yuan (or renminbi)appreciates fully and freely. Until they do, the dollar will be 1 to 11, I think.

    While the British pound is much higher than the usual 1 to 1.6 of the 90s, it is nowhere as ubiquitous as the American dollar. Go anywhere in the world, people still trade the dollar over their own currency, that much I know matter of fact-ly.

    What about Euros, I heard critics said. Well, this paragraph from the NY Times on the situation in Europe:

    >> For some of the countries on the periphery of the 16-member euro currency zone — Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain — this debt-fired dream of endless consumption has turned into the rudest of nightmares, raising the risk that a euro country may be forced to declare bankruptcy or abandon the currency. <<

    So, until China steps in to be the new Consumer National, America will continue to the biggest market for all to aim at. But in order for China to shift from the producer to the consumer role, they will have to deal with two pressing issues: What about the people living outside of Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai, that made only $60 or so a month? And two: Won’t the spending inside the capital creates the rift of inequality such spending will create on the surface level? That rift will undo the People’s Party, because they themselves rest on the principle of civil-unrest-safe wealth-equality.

    If you thought the 10,000 riots last year around the Sichuan earth quake and the Olympics were nasty in numbers, wait until the switch.

    The political party, at this point, is in no mood for the switch, which means, the dollar is not going to be replaced by the new standard any time soon.

    * * *

    Glenn Beck is a clown because he simply stated the obvious and leaves you thinking of apocalypse. Can’t blame him. When the economy is tanking, everyone instinctively becomes a doomsayer. Only when the Republicans are out of power, Beck and his cohorts cling onto the fiscal mantle. When I watched him during his stint at CNN, he was more worried about Hillary Clinton’s hair than Bush’s previous tax-cuts, which is a government spending, isn’t it?

  9. Hi Vaughn,

    No, I do not believe in the “end of the world.” I do believe in financial crisis hitting an all time low, because of bad decisions. I do believe that one government can collapse and be replaced by another, which may or may not be our own in basic origin or beliefs. For example, there are democracies or kingdoms that were replaced by dictatorships. This would be a bad change, not a good one. IF we borrow money from the Saudis to finance the bailout, then we may come under their eventual rule.

    I do not think it will happen in the next year, but somewhere in the next 4 years, we will have to deal with the debt issue. It will not go away, and will be there constantly to loom over us. I am guessing that things will float badly for a few years, and then sink miserably. THen, that will be a financial mess. Will we be able to crawl out of it and still be america? Or will another power take over?

    blessings
    marianne

  10. America is not as fragile as you think. I learned the lesson from underestimating it when the Supreme Court stepped in with Bush v. Gore. That was a blatant breach, of which the court had add in the ruling that the case does not apply to any other situation. For the first time in its history, the court says a case is contained and should not be used as reference to any future session.

    There had been many who said that ruling was the beginning of the end for democracy. What do you think?

  11. I must admit. I love how much work you put into your writings. I’m very, very impressed.

  12. Hi trumpet

    Thank you for the kind words. I try hard, because it is for the glory of God, not me, and for others to be well informed. I love people, and want to see the best happen for them.

    blessings
    marianne

  13. Hi vaughn,

    I am not familiar with the case you mention. I am not particularly happy with all the decisions the Supreme Court has made. I feel like it legislates from the bench, rather than just properly applying the Constitution to situations.

    blessings
    marianne

  14. What are you proposing for this mess—that we are going to pray our way out?

  15. Hi vaughn,

    We can pray for God to help us as individuals, but it will still happen in the big scheme of things. Sometimes, we just have to face the consequences of our actions.

    For example, if I had done something to damage my liver (excess drinking of alcohol) in a earlier time, even though I try to make corrections, the damage is still there. Another example – if I run up a huge credit card debt, I can try to stop making charges on the card, but the debt will have to be paid, or I can get into legal trouble.

    Sometimes, even corrective actions will not remove the consequences of what we have already done to ourselves. We will just have to suffer through the consequences.

    Our debt is so huge, only God could make it vanish. Printing worthless money by the billions will bring a temporary fix, until the bubble bursts.

    America may survive in some form, but it might go back to a time when people had much less.

    I think, in order to endure and survive this sort of radical change, that prayer might be a good idea. We already have had some suicides because people cannot handle loss in their lives.

    blessings
    marianne

  16. Here’s our differences start to take shape.

    What we have done here is entirely our own. He was not involved. I, for one, would not ask to fix the mess I have created.

    Taking responsibility, learning from the mistakes, are the essentials. Lacking them, the next disaster cannot be diverted. Most are doing that. But some are in denial, thinking that they can seek help, in governmental sense or in non-governmental sense.

    Over-borrowing? Time to pay back in full. Invaded a country and started a 2-year civil war? Fix it. Pottery barn rules. This economy is not un-fixable. And if we come out on the other side differently, so be it. If we came out the other side thinking, Hey, that was fun, let’s do it again, not even the Lord would want to tip his hands to us ever again.

  17. Hi vaughn,

    I do not think God has any intention of fixing this mess. It is our fault, not his.

    If this economy is fixable, that would be a nice thing to witness. I will believe it when I see it. In the meantime, most of my investments are in cash, at the moment, because right now, things are really weird and scary.

    I also do not think I will live long enough to see us get out of a 800 billion dollar debt, added to what we already have. But, hey, surprise me with governmental wizardry and genius. It will only benefit me financially, if they pull it off.

    blessings
    marianne

  18. “I do not think God has any intention of fixing this mess. It is our fault, not his.” Then praying will not do us much good now, does it?

  19. Hey vaughn,

    I was using the collective “we.” Like most people, I personally had nothing to do with the decisions on Wall Street. I did not create the mess. So, it is ok to ask God to sustain me, provide for me, and help me through a crisis that someone else created. If I created the mess, I would belong in jail, not getting bailouts. But this government has no morals now, so they believe in doing everything backwards: help the crook, and ignore the victims.

    marianne

  20. Have you forgotten? Last year when Hank Paulson, treasury chairman, came to Congress with Ben Bernanke, Fed’s chairman, to propose the TARP, Democrats instructed them to use some of the money for the people who were stuck in their mortgage contracts. Paulson ended up not doing it. Back in November, he faced big lecture from the Senate Banking Committee

    I am not surprised. Based on the conservative principles of free market, the crooks you referred to are the ones getting first treatment.

    Polls from Gallup confirmed NYT/CBS poll earlier this month, saying that the public approved Obama of 70 percent. They are giving him a lot of space and time to work up his solution. It took us 20 years, from the time of Ronald Reagan to Clinton to Bush 43, to get here. Getting out requires at least as much time and much change of habits.

    As for this administration being immoral, can we get off the pedestal and admit that torturing is immoral? Can we admit that our former president, our top elected leader, had misrepresented us?

    And while we are on that subject, can we agree that being a good friend of someone means you look out for them and tell them that what they are doing isn’t helpful to their cause? I am referring, of course, to the U.S. and Israel. Many times I wondered if we are really helping them by giving them complete, unconditional support. Even my own parents tried to talk me out of doing things I later found destructive.

  21. Hi Vaughn,

    Well, so far, the bail out package (now in trillions) includes strange things, like paying billions for STD awareness (that is NOT an emergency – we already do that), and sponsoring the arts – billions – just for that – looks like the lobbyists have more claims to the money than those out of work.

    Somewhere in there is 192 million for Puerto Rican rum sales. Also proposed is paying for abortions in other countries…now, when do we pick up the tab around the world for THAT? Then there is 2 million for wooden arrows, 100 million for racetracks…..who knows what other pork is in there.

    Closing gitmo is one thing but releasing terrorists back to Al queda is an act of terrorism in itself. No respect for the dangerous work in getting the guy to begin with.

    How bright is this group in Washington?

    Why not the extension of unemployment benefits, helping people keep their homes and putting food on the table, paying for light bills, gas for cars so they can find another job? Why don’t they just send everyone in america 100-200K? That would be cheaper, and people would be better off.

    The green jobs that are supposed to come are an insult to anyone who got past the 6th grade. Minimum wage. What about those with college degrees and higher? We are supposed to work at a recycling dump sorting plastic from paper? If that is true then stop funding for higher education. A degree is a waste of time and not helpful in getting a job.

    I have no sympathy for the Palestinians. I would not want them for “neighbors.” People that shoot 4000 katusha rockets a year into my back yard would never get my vote. They need to relocate those people to an island somewhere, where they cannot hurt anyone but themselves. People that strap bombs to their kids are radically insane. Unfortunately for everyone, they got kicked out of other Arab countries because they were trouble makers, and now they are so bad, no one will take them back. So the Israelis are stuck with them.

    Making concessions to the Palestinians is not the answer. That has never worked before, and still will not work. They need to relocate those in Gaza to a different region like the west bank. The Israelis gave up their homes to make space for people, so let them use that property and give the Gaza strip back to Israel.

    If I were president, this whole middle east mess would be over by now. sigh

    marianne

  22. About extending unemployment benefits, I think the labor department did that. But this is only a stop gap, not the real fix.

    Green jobs, it is easy to pick it apart because those jobs are not green jobs Obama was talking about. Recycling is an individual act. It works only at the state level because the state would have to engineer a plan, built a recycle plant, and conjure up the transportation system to deliver cans, papers to the site, et al.

    The green jobs Obama talking about is much more comprehensive. Detroit is about to put out an electric car. Problem is: None of the existing pipeline can service plugin-hybrids. People won’t buy them if there is no plug-in site. And detroit can’t sell them if people don’t buy them. I am getting nostalgic of the Truman era. Massive government projects of lining up the high way with pavement, and helped gasoline stations propping up every 4 exits or so. That kind of green job is manufacturing and engineering. We won’t replace oil altogether, but to provide alternative to diesel, 87, 89, and 91 gasoline. But that’ won’t happen just yet because there rarely a soul driving them hybrids right now. So the conundrum is convoluted, chicken-or-egg, there. We are, what, ten days into a new administration. There is ample time to move along this plan.

    About finding lowing paying jobs and having them while having a degree is insulting, well, everyone has to go through that, America is no exception. The new paradigm now includes not to place high expectation on your degree getting you high paying jobs. It should be your high degree getting you some sort of jobs.

    Stop funding for them would be a disastrous mistake. Sure it saves money now, but other countries are funding their children toward higher education, those kids would have greater capability to think up good/new ideas and build new companies.
    Those two at Google started out using their college degree. They might not using them directly, but the education facilitated their ideas. Same is said about Apple guys.

    * * *

    Why not send people cash? I asked the same thing. You might not like the answer.

    A study on behavioral economics found that people, once received a lump sum check, are more likely to save the money. If the purpose of giving them was to have them spend on things, then they won’t do it because they are afraid there won’t be another check coming.

    What is that famed quote from Virgil about giving a man a fish versus making him worked for it?

    * * *

    Israel are settling more people in 2007-08 than any other time of its history, and far beyond their 1967 border. So what meaningful concession are we talking about here?

    You suggested that we move Palestine into an “island.” Would you do the same for Israel? I don’t buy into the hoax of the Elders of Zion agenda, but I think Israel has to make some serious concession to get to where it’s get. This asymmetrical warfare won’t die in my generation because Israel refused to go back into the 1967 border and that it ran two badly managed wars within the last 2 years. There was no end game for the fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon back in 06, just as there was no real agenda other than a show of force. Revenge is hardly a national policy for success.

    I don’t pretend to have a solution. I am merely pointing out the lopsided support previous presidential administrations of this country had. You know, for all of the bright-head thinkers we have inside every previous administrations, we always backed the wrong leaders. Cuba, our mistake was Fidel. Vietnam, well, Diem and two dozens of other generals. Philippines—Ferdinand Marcos. Iran, the Shah. Iraq, Saddam Hussein. Its time we get into this Israel-Palestine conflict with clear eyes, not bullish about who our allies is. We are not one side’s lawyer or another. If there is any realistic goal to peace in the region, the U.S. would do well not to place one side above the other.

  23. Hi Vaughn

    I think since it is people’s tax money, if they want to take a lump sum, bank it, and then pay bills with it, that is their right. I am laid off. I did this with my severance pay. I made it last as long as possible. I was not my obligation to support big business with my spending. It was my need and right to take care of my self with the money.

    You would be surprised. The average person would handle a lump sum check much better than CEOs that are used to earning millions of dollars. The ones who have been bailed out already have proven this.

    So the thing about teaching a man to fish…does not always apply. Sometimes the man already knows how to fish. There are just no fish in the pond.

    I am a 58 year old biochemist, and there is nothing in the package for me, so making electric cars has no meaning for me. Since I am older, I am out competed by younger applicants every time for jobs, even though I have 30 years experience. The experience is irrelevant. Employers actually consider younger people more “qualified” since they just had their coursework, and they consider older people out of date. I have one more unemployment check and that is the end of me.

    My son lost his small business, and there is nothing for him in the package either. He cannot even get unemployment benefits. He has done the same thing for 15 years, and only has one set of skills. There is just no work for him, if he tries to get a job with someone else. He is in the building field, and illegal immigrants have taken up all the jobs. So he has nothing coming. He stays with me now. My daughter also just moved back in, to save money.

    So the bailout is only for the privileged, and those on Wall street. If I am lucky enough to get a minimum wage job, at my age, my taxes will go up to pay for some CEOs mistakes or crimes. The bailout is a joke to the average American.

    marianne

  24. The depth of your plight, if I may use that word, is regrettable. Many I knew, in the 90s, came out with tech degrees but the market cooled.

    Since I don’t know many small biz owners, I will ask, did he get much during the Bush tax cuts?

    Word on the street is that the next set of cuts will be incremental, about $40 per pay check for a year, not the $300 a lump sum we so accustomed to hear about.

    Not to lump you up with the study group, a while back many who answered polls and studies, dating back to 2001, 03 and 04, said their checks went into saving accounts.

    The government is in the bind. How can they stimulate the economy without looking, sounding condescending? If given lump sum and people use them to buy things that help move the supply chain along, that would be great. But people don’t put the good of the nation ahead of themselves. Many had narrow vision. It’s not their money, really. It’s their children’s future money. We are borrowing with each tax cuts the debt and deficit of the future.

    I would tell those paying taxes that the moment they sign off, it’s done and gone. Don’t expect it get them back in direct form. Surprisingly, many of the highways I drove to work everyday was built as far back during the massive highway rush of Truman/Ike time.

    Biochemist, I know quite a few my age out in Spokane, Wa. A lot of their work was based on cutting edge funding from foreign companies. During the Bush years, a lot of their projects fell through the crack. Having Obama in place doesn’t make the problem go away, either. They said some of their colleagues moved to Singapore because of greater freedom for research.

    This making electric car issue, I have no stake in the matter either. But Henry Ford once built an empire on making a car for every house. I think if we can solve the chicken-egg issue stated previously, we could flip a clean-energy vehicle for each family the way gas-driven cars did for Ford.

    Japan has been killing us because our leaders had been so short sighted and protectionistic. Such is the price for democracy, everything moves slowly. Sometimes I wished we have a national resolve-ness of China. Within 20 years, they moved the entire population from agriculture driven toward industrialization. Not all was pretty. But we could use a bit of national coherence toward a goal.

    By the way, here in Kansas, 10000 jobs from Boeing is slated to be cut. Cessna just handed out pink slips for 1/3 of its employees. Two hours, in a lounge, I heard a college colleague said she can’t wait to go out and search for jobs, with all of the opportunities laying around.

    As for me, I am used to moving around looking for jobs. I moved to three states in 2007 and finally settled here briefly with what offered. Certainty right now is a privilege. So we are somewhat in the same boat. All more the reason to root for our national leaders to figure out a sound plan and convincingly operated to lift all boats out of this ditch.

    What stymied me, going back to my awe with this country’s democracy, is that we have yet had an uprising. Thailand faced 3 just within the last 2 years. Compares to the many places out there, not a minute went by I am not honestly heartened by the fact that of where I am living right now. No Qusam rockets and the 15 second sirens. No sudden bombs and artillery firing.

  25. Hi Vaughn

    My son only got one check for $300. Since he was the business owner, he paid unemployment insurance (UI) on his employees, but not himself. He said that when there is a claim, the bill from UI comes to him, so he would be paying himself. The employees get benefits, but not the owners of the business.

    The government should not expect people to get all excited about a tiny check for $300. Maybe one or two light bills, and it is gone. If it is used to pay bills, it seems like the light company benefits as a business. That is consumer spending also.

    The work for biochemists is still there. I just have to be patient. I got tired of getting turned down, so I took a break. Since I am older, and don’t look as good as younger ones, I need to think about how I can repackage myself. If I can make it 2 more years, I can retire with the State government. But people like me are expected to find their own jobs, since no one understands in the employment office what we really do. There are jobs in the USA for science, and foreign companies are not too much of an issue. Manufacturing jobs is a different issue.

    I am glad we have not had an uprising yet either. Maybe in time, it might happen, as people get desperate. What people need to do is stick together. Example, the whole family moved back in with me. People need to find support systems, and share costs and expenses. That way they will make it.

    The government needs to be less shortsighted. They think “green jobs” will solve everyone’s problem, when that job description would not fit most people. Maybe I will get into politics, and become a senator. Then I can quit, and collect a pension the rest of my life. 🙂

    marianne

  26. Contrary, “green jobs” is not a short sighted. It is a dif. kind of infrastructure needed to be laid down others can build on. But this transition has been a long way coming.

    Looking around, from Detroit to here in Kansas, many manufacturers are retiring or perished. This nation is going through some heavy, though transition, from hands labor to thinkers. According to the 2005 statistics of science in an Atlantic magazine, the U.S. still is the leading country for registering patents and Japan is the leading applicators of those patents.

    No kidding then, when politicians from all stripes said science is big part of the future.

    Getting out of this ditch, I think, requires a lot of personal sacrifice. One day, you won’t see me here annoying you with counter arguments. That would be when my $40/m internet fund runs out.

    One last take before I retire from this post: Every career I know so far is facing paradigm shifts. The future is exciting as it is scary. Interesting times, indeed.

  27. Hi Vaughn,

    I guess the expression “short sighted” is not the best description. Green jobs, important as they are, just do not include all professions. So the better expression is “not all inclusive.”

    regarding paradigm shifts…like I said before…..we just have to repackage ourselves….reevaluate what we are and what we can do…and go in a slightly different direction……since I am in a “ditch” too, I started a blog to keep myself busy….so if I don’t answer someday, it means I got a job! 🙂

    thanks for the chat
    marianne

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  29. Traders can improve their market returns by keeping themselves well updated with market movements. Sample calls are shared by epic research as well.

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