Solar cycle 24 and the economy

We have seen certain economic trends with Solar Cycle 23. What could happen during solar cycle 24?

Reference:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html

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Marianne’s economic guess based on past patterns:

Last time stocks were fine in spring of 1999. By October 1999, 6 months later, they started to drop. By this time, the sunspot number had exceeded 75, and the intensity of the spots increased. If this correlation between sunspot number and intensity is repeated in cycle 24, by January 2010, one might see a drop initiate an entire year early, but would become more obvious, and intensify by January 2011-October 2011.

It would be best to pull back and be in low risk stocks, or money market funds, at that time. Stay that way until after mid 2014. So, in summary, the best time for stocks, which is hard to believe, is right now, for the next 2 years, because after this, it will get worse. Maintain the next 2 years in a conservative fashion, for the purpose of recovery of any current losses, then convert to cash, or something similar, the closer you get to 2011.

*****note on October 16, 2008…..the market is crazy now….if you bail out now, you will lose a lot.  I might be wrong, but I am guessing that this will stabilize out by next spring, early summer.  I think the current election politics, and all the controversies are affecting this too.  So once the election is over, it should get calmer, so the repair efforts can start to work.   I am just sitting tight on this….but each person can use their own judgment.

**** note:  April 4, 2009  ….I think I reconsider.  I do believe that there will be a temporary rally, but it may not be until Spring 2010.  It might last 6-7 months,  and then crash forever.  When you bail out is up to you…Keep most in cash now.

Marianne’s weather guesses:

More solar storms equal more weather problems, so prepare physically. Reinforce buildings. Have emergency supplies around. Airline travel around the poles should be cautious. Just do not be surprised.

Now, for an interesting observation and speculation, note that at present, which is at the right edge of the chart, from the 11 yr line to the top it is all blue.  There is only one other place on the entire chart where we can draw a vertical line from the 11 yr line to the top without it crossing some portion of color other than blue.  Can you find it?  (It is right at the beginning of Solar Cycle 5, i.e. the Dalton Minimum).  Are we watching the beginning of a new 200 year cycle like what began with the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800’s?  Obviously, no one knows.  If true, we are in for cooler temperatures, so goodbye global warming. But the current transition is certainly unusual, and invites comparison to past transitions.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/22/new-cycle-24-sunspot/

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